Down by the water on a Saturday night, Nukus is buzzing. The Dosliq Canal brings water from the Oxus through the centre of the city. Along its bank, families promenade, eat ice creams, and watch the dancing fountains. There’s a small fairground and a colourfully lit ferris wheel nicknamed the Nukus Eye. On warm summer evenings like this, life seems easy.
Nukus has been Karakalpakstan’s capital since the early 1930s. It was just a village then, but the Oxus flooded Tortkul, the previous capital of the Karakalpak ASSR, twice in quick succession, so the Soviets decided to move the regional administration to Nukus where it would be less vulnerable. Today, Nukus is Karakalpakstan’s largest city, the political, economic, and cultural hub. There are grand white government buildings, the Savitsky Museum with its world-famous collection of Russian avant garde, universities, and plenty of well-run businesses. In the decade of so I’ve been coming to Nukus, it has grown and become wealthier: the increased number of restaurants, coffee shops, and supermarkets testifies to the fact that locals have more money in their pockets. There’s been an uptick in tourism, too.
Lots of people have ambitious plans for Nukus and for Karakalpakstan. President Mirziyoyev came in August to announce a ream of new projects for every sector. IFIs and development agencies have allocated huge budgets to the republic, for economic development and job creation, as well as to mitigate some of the worst environmental consequences of the shrinking of the Aral Sea. But there’s an elephant in the room: if Nukus runs out of water, all this investment will be for nothing.
And although political discourse goes on and on about the shrinking of the Aral Sea, very little is said about the looming water shortages up river. But forecasts look bleak. There’s a very real risk that Nukus will run out of water within 15 years, and in the worst case scenario, maybe 10. The end of the Oxus is already getting close to Nukus, and when the Taliban complete the Kosh Tepe canal in 2028, taking a great volume of water from the river basin in northern Afghanistan, it will accelerate the river’s decline.
What then? There’s only so long you can truck in drinking water. It may be viable — or politically expedient — to keep Nukus supplied for a short while, but the same can’t be said of smaller cities and villages. Karakalpakstan has a population of 2 million people. Where will they go, those 2 million climate refugees? No amount of strategic planning or money is going to avert disaster; at best we can slow it down. With little time to prepare, the government and international partners must confront the reality of what’s to come and plan accordingly so that there are homes, jobs, and opportunities for Karakalpaks elsewhere.